Live scores — NBA
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Quoted vs actual — overs by day
Blue = what the model quoted. White = what actually happened. The gap between them is the bias the Honesty Panel tracks — and the reason printed probabilities get shaded before they ship.
Settled props by stat
67 gradedToday's picks
Predictions board
| Player | Stat | Line | Projection | P(over) raw | P(over) shrunk | Edge | Min | Sample |
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Players
Every player the engine has priced today, plus their settled engine record. Select a player for the full prop sheet.
Bring your own line
engine prices any line from mean + SDThe predictions are the product; a line is just a hurdle that changes by app. Pick a priced prop, type the line your app shows, and get the bias-corrected probability at your line.
Choose a prop and a line.
Entry math — live
Pick6 ladder: 3→6x · 4→10x · 5→12x · 6→25x · 7→40x · 8→80x, times the product of pick tagsTap props on the board below to build an entry. Sweep and pay-tier odds update live from the bias-corrected probabilities; the weakest leg is named with what it costs the entry. Swap Machine logic: any leg can be swapped for a stronger unused prop from the same board.
Board — tap to add / remove
| Player | Stat | Line | Projection | Shrunk P(over) | In entry |
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Calibration buckets
quoted P(over) vs actual over rateA calibrated model sits on the diagonal. The 0.5–0.6 bucket is the problem child: quoted 55.7%, landed 38.1% (n=21). The 0.6–0.8 range runs close to honest.
Lean split
where the bias livesUnders are nearly perfectly calibrated. Overs run hot — the engine falls in love with its own projections, so every printed over probability gets shaded 6 points before it ships.
Hit rate by stat
settled engine projections, right-side rateAudited card
human-audited Pick6 entriesModel's solo card
engine-only, no audit layerThe ledger
Every settled engine projection, newest first. A row counts as a hit when the model's lean (over or under) matched the result — the same standard the Honesty Panel grades.
| Date | Player | Stat | Line | Call | Quoted | Projection | Actual | Result |
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